A Tale of Oil and Fire – Part 4: Meditations

This piece is Part 4 of a 4 Part series – A Tale of Oil and Fire [Click here for Part 3]

Aggressive Negotiations

Let’s finally discuss the elephant the room – the red, white, and blue hand in our little tale.

The American fingerprint on the Saudi-Iran conflict is undeniable. From installing the Shah of Iran decades back to the regime change wars of recent history, it’s easy to criticize American foreign policy in our saga. American weaponry has singed the earth and flesh of the Middle East. But as in most cases, one must zoom out to capture the panorama.

In the Cold War, the US and USSR locked horns in a quest to dominate the world. Geopolitics mirrors natural selection, and only the strongest or most adaptable survive. In the midst of the icy conflict, the US found warmth in Saudi Arabia. With the deal solidifying the petrodollar, America’s economic domination checkmated the USSR’s stratagems. This “deal with the devil” can arguably be the direct cause for much of America’s stability, prosperity, and global hegemony. It gave America a vital edge in the closely contested clash of superpowers. Perhaps if the USSR took the deal, we would have seen similar consequences except with Russian bombs being dropped instead of American ones.

But of course, this is all could’ve, should’ve, would’ve, maybe’s, and hypotheticals. The bottom line is that in the midst of conflict, America had a choice: achieve a negotiation and possibly win, or watch the oil-rich USSR gain more ground. In the grand (American) scheme of things, it seems the US picked the right choice as victory has been realized.

But if you’ve been paying attention to our little tale, you may have noticed a slight change in the deal’s tone lately. The US has dramatically eased its boots on the ground initiatives in the last decade. No “Desert Storm” style interventions in either Syria or Yemen, yet still a strong relationship with the Saudis who had America on a leash prior. Why?

The US has discovered a gift right under its noses – shale oil.

Shale oil is fine grain sedimentary rock that generates similar compounds to crude oil but usually is more difficult to extract and more environmentally unfriendly. In recent years, the US has utilized new technology and identified old reserves in its territory. The results have been game changing. America is now a net exporter of oil and relies less and less on the Saudis. Concurrently, the Saudis have become the number 1 buyer of American weapons to fulfill their ambitions and defense against an ever more belligerent Iran and the Houthis. The US’s position on the petrodollar pact is becoming more and more advantageous.

Meanwhile, the Saudis have pursued self-sufficiency as well. As mentioned prior, Mohammed bin Salman has sought to expand Saudi industry beyond oil. Cloaked diplomacy with Israel has been on the rise for decades now as Salman recognizes the importance of the US ally in the great game with diminishing concern for and returns from the Palestinians. Salman has also expanded ties with most other GCC members while seeking to isolate adversaries such as Qatar.

Sharp Words and Blunt Fists

Now is the time to touch on Qatar and Turkey as an interesting appendices to our story. Collectively, they can be seen as the mouth (Qatar) and fist (Turkey) of the Muslim Brotherhood. A shadowy organization that seeks to influence Middle Eastern affairs and promote Islamist politics.

Another oil rich country, the tiny nation of Qatar has mastered information warfare and propaganda (just see its coverage of Israel and India) with its think tanks and media company Al-Jazeera. Qatar was very much a frenemy to Saudi Arabia in recent years with its media coverage, geopolitical maneuvers (ties with Iran), and terror funding upsetting the Saudis so much that they recently conducted a fairly ineffective embargo of Qatar. Qatar’s ties to the Islamist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, also bring it close with Turkey. Erdogan’s recent foray into Kurdish Syrian lands has posed another destabilizing factor in the Middle East. Erdogan’s Islamist rhetoric and violent outbursts fit well with what many see as his caliphate-like ambitions. While we previously saw a Saudi Sunni and Iranian Shia conflict, now Turkey’s Erdogan seeks to show himself as the shield of the Sunnis against the corrupt Saudi pretenders. It may be a Qatari-Turkish axis (and any other government that the Muslim Brotherhood can influence) that will become the hegemon of the Middle East.

King of Kings

This is where Russia arrives. A country bathed in nostalgia of the triumphant march of the USSR, Russia seeks to fill the holes where an increasingly isolationist America retreats from.

While Russia consolidates an uneasy relationship with Iran, the triumvirate of Iran-Russia-Syria has struck a deal with the recently invading Turkish forces. Turkey and its extremist proxies have invaded Kurdish areas (Turkey claims its a safe haven for terrorists) in northern Syria decimating the local Kurds and committing horrible atrocities. The Kurds in turn have struck a deal with Assad in the midst, subsequently ending their autonomy for protection. The US simultaneously have pulled out of the region in what many say is a betrayal of the ISIS vanquishing Kurds and a gift to Russia. Indeed, Turkey’s aggression has spawned a wedge between itself and NATO allies as Russia attempts to fill the void of the Middle East, especially strengthening its relationship with Iran.

As mentioned earlier, internal combustion smolders across the Iranian plateau. While full blown rebellion isn’t visible yet, more and more youth are questioning the economic drain of Iran’s foreign policy decisions. Speaking of those decisions, protests have sparked in both Lebanon and Iraq, posing further questions to both Iran’s foreign policy and ideology.

But how would a secular Iran wield the Shia sword of Ali? By forsaking Shia Islam as a state ideology, Iran’s influence across the Middle East may collapse. We may see Iran adopt a resemblance of earlier Turkish foreign policy – a secular internal image cocooned with external Ottoman Sultanate-like ambitions. Iran may retreat from extremism internally post-Ayatollah, but may still repeat Khomeini’s call outside its borders.

Iran has only grown belligerent of late, fresh off victories across the Middle East. It has renewed venomous rhetoric towards Israel with conflict inching closer to the Israelis as well as Saudis. Iran will most likely not enact a direct confrontation, but use its powerful IRGC to ferment proxy conflicts in both states by way of Palestinians and Shia militias respectively.

Oil and Fire

Ancient Iranians worshiped the element of fire. Fire was seen as purity, a source of comfort, and light. Truly, the motif of fire as divinity is present across many religions. Fire is belief, and sometimes that belief takes on another aspect of fire – it burns those in proximity. Saudi Arabia and Iran have incubated dangerous flames in their furnaces of ideology. They have spread their ideas across the world in an Olympic torch-like fashion. Passing on violence to different peoples and codifying a marathon of hatred for future generations.

A hope of light emerges here though. Many of the youth in these great civilizations have had enough of the wildfire of extremism. Both in Saudi Arabia and Iran, young people seek greater freedoms and modernity. In the background, the source of much of this fire and extremism is now ever so slowly going out of fashion – oil.

Though oil is still an integral piece of this tale and will be for decades, the world is weening off of oil into renewables. Saudi Arabia and Iran now begin a countdown.

Iran and the Saudis have grown accustomed to using oil as leverage to fuel the fire of their ideologies. There’s even evidence that the recent civil war in Syria was highly influenced by pipeline geography and the tussle over who will satisfy European gluttony. But as oil’s influence wanes, both countries will be forced to adapt or fall into squalor. How will Iran and Saudi Arabia’s conflict evolve as countries either look for foreign oil (like the shale rich US) or accelerate transitions to renewables? Though developing countries still have a healthy appetite for oil (while India has fantastic implementation of renewables, its need for oil has only grown), market competition is stacking in favor of renewables at a frenetic pace. If oil prices slide prior to an infrastructure evolution, both the Saudis and Iran will be caught in a whirlwind of instability and vulnerability.

The destiny of these Middle Eastern titans will impact not only the region, but also the world. With nations changing in ideology and energy dependence, these countries must introspect and act on their deficiencies as well as their successes. At the end of the day, just as in the beginning, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s future will be determined by how they choose to write their stories and which destiny they choose to fulfill – A Tale of Oil and Fire.

If you want to learn more about this topic as well as watch a fantastic documentary (and source for much of this post), check out Frontline’s amazing epic – Bitter Rivals.