The Anatomy of Modi’s Victory

To the surprise of many – not the least foreign media houses, eminent journalists, and the elites of India – Narendra Modi will be coming back to power, with a greater majority, for a second term as the Prime Minister of India.

Much to the dismay and astonishment of some that casually peruse the Indian political arena, Modi’s triumph will go into the record books as a turning point in India’s history. This election is very much a political pivot as well as a civilizational one for India.

Humble Beginnings

India had largely been ruled by English educated elites for most of its independent history. In 2014, the incumbent Indian National Congress (INC) was at the end of a corruption laden term compounded with an economic slowdown. The Indian electorate answered with an emphatic mandate for Narendra Modi, who lead his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to form a 336 member strong government with allies of a possible 543.

It was a mandate based on anti-corruption and contempt for the INC; but it was also based on faith in Narendra Modi and his work as Chief Minister in the now prosperous state of Gujarat. As a 4 time CM, Modi had proven his mettle in governance and was now entrusted with the centre. In addition, a large section of the electorate admired his Hindu pride after abhorring the creeping appeasement and warped secularism that the INC had pushed for decades.

But one factor that should never be underestimated is the who Narendra Modi was and is today.

Modi was born to a poor and lower caste family. He was married off as a child as was custom for many in his situation. He soon took the ancient Indian vow of sanyaas – renunciation of the material world and family – and chose to travel the Himalayas alone to find himself, just as the vaunted yogis did in ages past. He returned a transformed man joining the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and started volunteering for Hindu causes as well as getting involved in politics through the BJP. Modi rose up through the ranks to become the Chief Minister of Gujarat and transform the state into an economic powerhouse, a phenomenon dubbed the “Gujarat Model.” This model of development, his commitment to nationalism, and massive disillusionment with the INC lead him to victory.

Modi was essentially an everyman. He was one of the oppressed classes in India that had suffered for so long under the elites. Watching Modi rise to Prime Ministership gave an intense sense of hope to the hopeless. A sense of opportunity and wonder. These subalterns essentially saw themselves in Narendra Modi.

Saffron Lenses

“Hindu Nationalism.”

One of the first headlines you see in almost any article about Modi. For many years and even today, people will claim this is the sole reason for Modi’s victories. The only reason he is in power. A projection of pure bigotry on the massive Indian populace. A bit unfair to say the least.

You see, Hindu Nationalism or Hindutva was born out of persecution and cultural genocide, much more akin to Black Nationalism or indigenous rights movements than the haughty White Nationalism comparison frequently thrown around. Muslim and Hindu sources both detail the barbarity of the Islamic invasions into India during the medieval ages, something that has left deep communal scars on the Indian psyche. A lack of temples and even Hindus in previously Hindu lands such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh doesn’t heal any sense of Hindu persecution. Add to that the severe colonialism of the British Raj and many of the evangelical conspirators behind it, a deep tension also arises between Hindus and Christians.

Hindutva is a profound reaction to past atrocities. This does not make it right or wrong. It just is.

Modi’s version of Hindutva has become more and more pan-Indian rather than the “hate all minorities” type. His government has not passed any discriminatory measures against minorities and Modi himself has kept an overall inclusive rhetoric. Modi’s Hindutva functions as an inclusionary and commonality focused ideology that stresses indigenous roots, cultures, and philosophies.

While policy attacks are absent, others point to the deplorable violence on minorities accusing Modi of complacency.

Fortunately, time reveals truth.

The large increase in cow lynchings that should have polarized much of the electorate has since been proven to have been based on selective reporting and fudged data. Much of the cause of allegedly “communal” incidents were socioeconomically related rather than on religious and caste lines. Add on the dismal law and order machinery in the poorer parts of India, and a perfect recipe for this horrid violence manifests. This theme of disconnect in surface appearance versus ground reality is valuable in understanding why Modi won.

Modi’s inclusive nationalism was an essential pillar of keeping the traditional BJP vote bloc of upper caste and middle class voters happy. Many of them felt dismayed by the lack of any favorable initiatives during his 4 years in office. An early 2019 budget giving tax relief and economic reservation to non-lower castes assuaged many doubts from the old guard. Decisive retaliations for Pakistan based terror attacks in 2016 and especially in early 2019 cemented favor for the BJP base. The relative lack of civilian terror attacks contrasted with almost bimonthly terror attacks during INC rule also didn’t hurt.

But it wasn’t necessarily BJP’s base that gave them the huge margin of victory, it was the poor.

Fundamentals

Modi combined frenetically paced infrastructure building with direct deliverance of welfare schemes to devastating effect.

Indians were used to corrupt governments hobbling out doles to placate the masses, of which much of it would be taken by middle men. Infrastructural development would be conducted at a snail’s pace and frequently stall. Modi shattered this inefficiency.

The BJP has expanded major infrastructure at an unheard of pace across India, but especially in poor, backwards areas. Their electrification and toilet building schemes impacted hundreds of millions of people. Many were receiving both of these for the first time in their lives. Modi’s Ujjwala scheme delivered gas LPGs to millions of poor rural women who no more had to destroy their lungs cooking on wood fire. Next, he would give pucca or permanent, stone built houses to many who lived in hay or scrap sheds. Healthcare coverage was given to the poorest 500 million Indians; no more would their lives be held back or even ended because they could not afford medicine and surgery.

But how did he deliver all this so efficiently? In late 2016 as President Trump shocked America with his victory, Modi astounded Indians by withdrawing 500 and 1000 rupee notes from circulation. The move is said to have been a huge headache and “experts” say it produced mixed results. But as always, hindsight is 20/20. What demonetization did was force millions to open bank accounts. They would then have to link it with their Aadhar (think of it as an Indian social security number). Along with this, mass financial digitization was adopted by Indians. Now all Indians and especially the poor could receive all their welfare through DBT (Direct Benefit Transfer) into their bank accounts. The corrupt middle man was wiped out from the welfare process.

Millions of people’s lives improved in Modi’s 5 years. People who lacked hope for all their lives were now saved by someone who had felt their hungers, injustices, and hopelessness in his life. Modi connected not only on a physical level with Indians through his development and welfare, but also on an emotional level. He proved himself to be a fantastic orator, frequently referencing ancient tales and traditions of old. By combining Hindutva and development, Modi created an unstoppable formula and brand.

Much to the detriment of the 3rd reason for his reelection – the opposition.

A Grand Dysfunctional Alliance

Days ago, Modi demolished the opposition winning 303 seats of 543 for his BJP party alone, crossing the 272 needed to form a government. The opposition are in absolute disarray and dismay, just as they were during his entire term.

The main opposition, the INC, is headed by a dynast named Rahul Gandhi, whose sole claim to fame is being the son, grandson, and great-grandson of Prime Ministers. His family has controlled India through Prime Ministership or proxy for almost 70 years since independence in 1947. Himself, his mother, his father, his sister, and his brother-in-law have been hit with a litany of corruption scandals trailing back till the 1980s. The shambolic state of Indian courts as well as the INC stuffing them to the brim during their rule has guaranteed an almost indefinite stall of justice. Rahul has been widely derided by the BJP and certain sections of the media with a campaign that seems to have combined the lying, social media strategy, and bombastic rhetoric of Donald Trump (strong suggestions of Cambridge Analytica links are present) with the entitlement and arrogance of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Not a good combination. This is in addition to a strong consensus that Rahul Gandhi is just an inept leader and politician with no qualified experience to be Prime Minister of 1.3 billion people.

Next comes one of the most vile sections of Indian politics – caste politics. Using the theory and past success of caste arithmetic, 2 hated rivals teamed up to stop Modi’s BJP from winning in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has the population of Brazil and holds the key to winning elections. The lower caste (Dalit) focused Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Yadav/Muslim focused Samajwadi Party (SP) miraculously teamed up to defeat Modi. These parties were bitter rivals in the past with violence between them commonplace. The hypothesis was using combined vote percentages to demographically overwhelm the BJP as Dalits, Yadavs, and Muslims would vote en masse against the BJP.

Modi’s formula obliterated them. Winning 64 seats (62 for BJP + 2 for an ally) out of a possible 80 as voters rejected their blind caste allegiances and voted for Modi’s progress and achievements. A momentous and beautiful occasion as many see this as the unraveling of toxic caste politics in India.

Then came a huge surprise, West Bengal. A state that has been devastated by mismanagement and corruption for decades. It was now under the most dictatorial leader India had seen in years – Mamata Banerjee. Mamata’s party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has engaged in voter intimidation, booth capturing, and violence in the past; but this election, the magnitude was magnified. BJP workers were killed weekly during the election season with booth capturing and intimidation abundant. The Indian Election Commission responded in a delayed and shocking fashion, but finally sent paramilitary to ensure proper voting and repolling at a few locations. The BJP would win 18/42 seats even with the rampant rigging, a huge increase from the 2 seats they won in 2014.

With early alliance building and strategic election campaigning, the BJP’s President, Amit Shah, built upon Modi’s formula to guarantee even greater numbers for the coalition.

Writing on the Walls

While most international media outlets hysterically attacked Modi for 5 years, he executed. He kept a steady mind and inspiring words, enacting policies and messages that profoundly impacted the Indian voter. Modi has defeated caste politics, poll violence, minority scaremongering, dynasts, but most significantly an old colonial idea of India.

For many, Modi’s win is a redemption of an ancient Indian civilization. An exorcism of not just the Mughals and British, but also of the elites who praised them and ruled India for decades. Modi has shown decisiveness not seen in an Indian leader for decades. He is seen as a man who gets things done and works as a true public servant. He possesses little assets to his name, has proven to be incorruptible, and has a way with words that the average Indian admires.

Modi’s life story and actions have given hope to the downtrodden and aspiring. He is unabashedly proud of his humble background and Hindu religion. His rise has influenced all parties to start speaking the language of Hindutva and has posed hard questions to the crumbling Nehruvian idea of India that had failed to bring economic progress and social justice to India.

In the end, this entire election boiled down to a referendum on Narendra Modi. On his policies, on his idea of India, on him as a leader.

He has passed with flying colors. With Modi triumphant, India has given itself victory, confidence, and a new hope.